面向不确定性：新发展阶段中国社会治理的困境及其应对

中国正处于全面建设社会主义现代化国家、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的新发展阶段，所面临的直接风险逐渐向潜在的不确定性转变。研究发现，发展环境、发展主体和发展方式等方面的不确定性因素同时增长，共同推动着不确定性成为新发展阶段中国社会的整体性特征。这对当前的中国社会治理实践产生冲击，使其遭遇价值、行动、方法和结果等层面的多重困境。对此，需要在树立不确定性思维的基础上，从主体赋能、机制创新、制度创设等维度入手，推动“韧性治理”方式的建构，以此走出新发展阶段中国社会治理的困境，提升治理效能。

Facing Uncertainty: The Dilemmas of Social Governance in China in the New Stage of Development and Its Response

China is in a new stage of development to comprehensively build a socialist modern country and march towards ‘the second Centenary Goal’, and the direct risks it faces are gradually turning to potential uncertainty. It is found that the uncertainty factors of development environment, development subject and development mode are simultaneously increasing, which jointly promote the uncertainty to become an overall characteristic of Chinese society in the new stage of development. This has had an great impact on the current practice of social governance in China, resulting in suffering from multiple dilemmas at the levels of value, action, method and result. At the value level, risk thinking still dominates governance practice. At the level of action, it is naturally difficult to deal with uncertainty. At the method level, the traditional governance mechanism is difficult to normally take effect. At the result level, uncertain consequences of social governance occur frequently. In this regard, it is necessary to promote the construction of ‘resilience governance’ from the dimensions of subject empowerment, mechanism innovation and system creation based on a new uncertainty thinking. What need to be done to get out of the dilemma of China’s social governance in the new development stage and improve the efficiency of governance, resilience governance would be helpful as it provides important guidance for coping with uncertainties. More specifically, what should be done, first of all, is to cultivate the uncertainty thinking and vitalize the concept of ‘resilience governance’. In the second, it is supposed to strengthen the empowerment of the subject and build the basis for action of resilience governance. Thirdly, innovating governance mechanisms and building a ‘modular’ governance approach should be taken into account. And finally, strengthening the establishment of the system and promoting the deep change of governance form are necessary. However, the construction of resilience governance model needs multi-disciplinary, multi-subject and multi-sector cooperation. Meanwhile, uncertainty also requires an integrated analysis across disciplines. At present, it is urgent to take uncertainty as the theoretical guidance, social governance as the practical platform, and adopt an ‘integrated disciplinary approach’ to realize the integration among different disciplines. Therefore, we hope that this article will inspire more scholars to think about ‘uncertainty of social development’ from an interdisciplinary perspective, and provide more practical and forward-looking ideas and methods for the transformation of social governance in China at the new stage of development.