时空透视与成因探测:大型展会网络信息扩散规律与驱动机制北大核心CSCDCSSCI

展会是一个信息密集型行业,网络信息扩散对大型展会可持续发展至关重要。然而,当前研究主要从微观层面为展会信息传播提供理论指导,较少从宏观层面探讨大型展会网络信息扩散规律及其影响因素。因此,本研究以广交会为例,引入网络大数据衡量网络信息扩散量,通过地理空间分析和地理探测器等方法分析大型展会网络信息扩散的时空规律与成因逻辑。结果表明:①大型展会网络信息扩散显示出时效变化的复杂过程,呈现出六阶段非线性特征的生命周期:酝酿期、增长期、爆发期、反复期、衰退期和消亡期,且具有“前兆效应”和“后事件效应”。②大型展会网络信息扩散整体呈现出由“东南”向“西北”递减的稳定空间格局,具有明显的距离衰减、经济趋向性和信息通达性等空间规律。③网络信息扩散形成了酝酿期本地集中性最强,随着时间推移本地集中性被削弱,并在爆发期后达到稳定的时空格局。④经济因素、展会发展规模和信息化水平是大型展会网络信息扩散的核心拉力因素,空间距离为核心阻力因素,这些探测因子共同构成了大型展会网络信息扩散的驱动机制。本研究不仅从理论上揭示了大型展会网络信息扩散的时空规律,还厘清了网络信息扩散空间格局的核心影响因素和辅助影响因素,并系统地构建了驱动机制,拓展了大型展会网络信息研究的理论体系及内容框架,为强化展会网络信息管理及促进展会行业可持续发展提供理论指导。

Rules and logic:Exhibition internet information diffusion rules and dynamic mechanism

The exhibition is an information-intensive industry, and the proliferation of internet information is vital to the sustainable development of large-scale exhibitions. Current research mainly provides theoretical guidance for exhibition information dissemination at the micro level. However, few studies discuss the rules of large-scale exhibition internet information diffusion and its influencing factors at the macro level. Therefore, this study takes the Canton Fair as an example, and measures the amount of internet information diffusion by using big data. We discuss the spatio-temporal rules and cause logic of large-scale exhibition internet information diffusion through geospatial analysis and geodetector methods. Our research shows some fruitful results. First, the spread of large-scale exhibition internet information shows a complex process of time-dependent changes, presenting a six-stage non-linear life cycle, which includes incubation period, growth period, outbreak period, repetitive period, decline period and extinction period. Furthermore, the internet information diffusion presents "precursor effect" and "post-event effect". Second, the internet information diffusion of the large-scale exhibition indicates a decreasing and stable spatial pattern of "Southeast-Northwest", which shows the distance attenuation law of "exhibition holding area > short-range area > remote area > edge area". This paper highlights that the information transmission in cyberspace is still affected by geographic space. These results reveal obvious spatial rules such as distance attenuation, economic trend and information accessibility. Third, the proliferation of internet information has formed the strongest local concentration in the incubation period. However, the local concentration gradually weakens over time, and a stable spatio-temporal pattern forms after the outbreak period. Fourth, economic factors, exhibition development scale and informatization level are the core pull factors for large-scale exhibition internet information diffusion, and spatial distance is regarded as the core resistance factor. In addition, urbanization, population size and traffic level jointly assist the dissemination and reception of exhibition network information. These influencing factors constitute a push-pull driving mechanism for the spread of large-scale exhibition internet information. This study not only theoretically reveals the spatio-temporal rules of large-scale exhibition internet information diffusion, but also identifies the core and auxiliary influencing factors, and systematically constructs a driving mechanism. It enriches the theoretical system and content framework of large-scale exhibition network information research, and provides theoretical guidance for expanding exhibition brand influence, strengthening exhibition internet information management and promoting the sustainable development of exhibitions.