以乡镇为单元评估云南省建水县地震灾害风险

基于云南省建水县的建筑物、人口数量、生命线工程、地形地貌等数据,选取地震灾害损失风险评估因子,利用评估模型对设定烈度下可能造成的人员死亡、房屋破坏、滑坡密度等进行计算,给出地震灾害损失定量评估结果。在传统风险评估方法基础上,对无法建立灾害损失关系的承灾体用风险暴露量来代替灾害损失量进行风险评估。最后应用极差变换法对地震灾害损失的不同因子进行标准化,通过综合赋权划分地震灾害风险等级。结果表明:建水县地震灾害高风险的乡镇有5个,主要分布在建水北部的曲江,南部的南庄、西庄、临安、官厅一带;中风险乡镇有6个,低风险乡镇有3个。

Assessment of Earthquake-hazard Risk of Jianshui County,Yunnan Province Based on Township Units

We use the data of buildings,population,topography,lifeline engineering systems,etc in Jianshui County of Yunnan Province,and select suitable risk factors of earthquake disaster losses,to calculate the casualties,damage to buildings,and amount of landslides with the assessment model on condition of the given seismic intensity,and get quantitative results of earthquake disaster losses.As the classical risk-assessment methods fail to help establish disaster-loss relationships for the disaster-bearers,we assess the earthquake-hazard risk using the risk-exposure amount instead of loss amount.Finally,we use the range transformation method to standardize the factors of earthquake disaster losses,and grade the earthquake hazards by comprehensive weighting.The results show that in Jianshui County there are 5 high-risk villages and towns(Qujiang in the north,Nanzhuang,Xizhuang,Lin'an,and Guanting in the south),6 medium-risk ones,and 3 low-risk ones.