中国煤矿安全生产水平空间差异与影响因素

基于2001—2019年分省百万吨死亡率,利用泰尔指数、变异系数和地理探测器等对中国煤矿安全生产水平空间差异程度及其驱动因素展开定量化研究,为及时获取区域煤矿安全态势、提升煤矿事故精准预警与防范提供支持。结果显示：① 依据百万吨死亡率可将中国煤矿安全生产水平分为南方区（川云渝贵湘鄂桂赣粤苏浙闽）、东北区（黑吉辽）、西北区（青新甘）、华北区（京冀鲁豫皖）和中北区（晋陕蒙宁）5个区域,各区煤矿安全水平依次升高。② 煤矿安全水平总体差异经历了总体稳定且差异均衡期（2001—2007年）、总体及差异波动上升期（2008—2015年）、总体稳定但区间差异加大期（2016—2019年）3个发展阶段后仍保持缓慢增长态势,区内差异开始缩减但区间差异持续扩大。③ 影响五大区安全水平的因素各异,采掘环境对东北区、西北区和南方区影响大;供需情况和企业管理类指标的变化更易引起东北区、华北区和中北区安全水平变动;监察执法类指标对中北区以外的各区均具有较高的影响力;各区百万吨死亡率对经济环境均产生响应,但指标的影响系数处于中等水平。④ 监察执法、供需情况和经济环境类指标与其他类别指标普遍具有较强的非线性增强效应,通过调整监察执法类指标更易对安全水平变动产生效果。

Spatial differentiation and influencing factors of coal mine safe production level in China

Based on the 2001-2019 million-ton mortality rate by province, this paper conducts a quantitative study on the degree of spatial variation of China's coal mine safe production level and its driving factors using the Theil index, coefficient of variation, and geographic detectors to provide support for identifying risk level of regional coal mine safety in time and strengthening accurate coal mine accident warning and prevention. The results show that: (1) Based on the million-ton mortality rate, China's coal mine safe production level can be divided into five regions: Southern Region (Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian), Northeast Region (Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning), Northwest Region (Qinghai, Xinjiang and Gansu), Northern Region (Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Anhui) and North-Central Region (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia). (2) The difference in coal mine safety level experienced three stages: the period of overall stability and differential equilibrium (2001-2007), the period of overall and differential fluctuant rising (2008-2015), and the period of overall stability with increasing interval differences (2016-2019). After going through these stages, the overall difference in coal mine safety level still maintained a slow-growth trend, and the differences within regions began to shrink but the differences between regions continued to expand. (3) The factors affecting the safety level of the five regions are different. The extractive environment has a large impact on the northeast, northwest and southern regions; changes in the supply and demand situation and enterprise management indicators are more likely to cause changes in the safety level of the northeast, northern and north-central regions; the regulatory and monitoring indicators have a great influence on all the regions except the north-central region; the million-ton mortality rate of each region has the response to the economic environment, and the influence coefficient of the indicators is at medium level. (4) The indicators of regulatory monitoring, supply and demand, and the economic environment generally have a strong non-linear enhancement effect, which is more likely to affect the change of safety level by adjusting the indicators of regulatory monitoring.