黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险评估及预估

利用气候资料、地理信息数据及社会经济数据，根据自然灾害风险理论和低温冷害形成机制，采用GIS技术，分析了黑龙江省玉米低温冷害的危险性和易损性，实现了玉米低温冷害的风险评估与区划，并利用CMIP5中的MRI-CGCM3模式模拟结果对黑龙江省2015-2044年玉米低温冷害风险进行预估。结果表明：1961年以来共有24年是低温冷害年，其中12年是严重低温冷害年。松嫩平原大部、三江平原大部及黑河南部是玉米一般低温冷害的多发区，同时该区暴露性较高，如有重度灾害发生，则对全省粮食产量产生严重影响。未来30年，黑龙江省低温冷害发生的概率有所减少，松嫩平原东部和南部是一般低温冷害的高风险区，三江平原西部是严重低温冷害的高风险区。

Evaluation and Projection of Maize Cold Damage in Heilongjiang

Based on climate data, geographic information data and economic data, the risk and vulnerability of maize cold damage in Heilongjiang Province were analyzed by using natural disaster risk theory, formation mechanism of cold damage, and GIS technology. The assessment and regionalization were also analyzed. The risk of maize cold damage from 2015 to 2044 was projected with CMIP5 MRI-CGCM3 model. During 1961-2014, there were 24 cold damage years, including 12 severe cold damage years. The most part of Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain and south of Heihe are frequency-occurring area of general cold damage, with higher exposure. If the cold damage occurs, impact on the grain production is serious. The probability of cold damage in Heilongjiang Province will decrease in the next 30 years. East and south of Songnen Plain are the high risk areas of general cold damage, and west of Sanjiang Plain is a high risk area of severe cold damage.