Long term variations in solar flare activity

A statistical analysis of the contemporary (1954-1975) solar flare particle events has been made for the parametersF (integrated, proton fluence in cm^-2 in an event with kinetic energy above 10 MeV) andR ₀ (the characteristic rigidity). These data are compared with the long-term averaged values determined from stable- and radio-nuclide measurements of lunar samples. The analysis shows that the ancient solar flare proton spectrum was harder (higher R₀ values) compared to that observed in contemporary flares. A similar analysis can not be made for the mean long-term averaged flux (¯J, cm^-2 S^-1), since the contemporary averages suffer from an uncertainty due to the statistics of a single event. However, the average flux estimates for time durations 〈T〉 exceeding 10³ yr, are free from such uncertainties. The long-term averaged ¯J values obtained over different time scales (10⁴ - 10⁶ yr) suggest a possible periodic variation in solar flare activity, with enhanced flux level during the last 10⁵ yr. The available data rule out the occurrence of giant flares, with proton fluence exceeding 10¹⁵ cm^-2 during the last million years.