西太平洋赤道附近海温与中国东南沿海台风关系的初步分析

本文对１９６０－１９９６年北太平洋月平均海表温度和中国东南沿海年台风资料的分析素材，初步揭示了两者之间联系。结果表明，西太平洋赤道附近海流区的海表温度不仅在同期具有高与台风多呈正相关关系。而且在前期存在关预测的先兆，特别是秋冬两季更加明显，具有较好的隔季相关关系。经建立预报方程，其趋势拟合率达８１．８％，试报３ａ，并准确率为６６．７％。

Primary analysis of relation between SST of West-Pacific near Equator and typhoon along southeast China

This paper uses the monthly mean data of SST of the northern Pacific and annual ty-phoon in southeast Fujian from 1960 to 1996 and analyzes their relationship. The resultsshowed that,the SST of West-Pacific near Equator has not only positive relation with ty-phoon,but also a predictivable prodigus,especially in autumn and winter seasons. The estab-lished forecasting epuation has a 81. 8% tendency fitting rate and a 66. 7% predicting accura-cy based on 3 a verification.