柳林地区煤层渗透率逐步回归分析与预测

渗透率是制约煤层气商业化开发至关重要的因素之一。以柳林地区煤层气勘探阶段获取的试井有效渗透率为基础，分析渗透率与有效应力、储层压力、煤层埋深等影响因素之间的关系，利用多元逐步回归分析方法建立渗透率预测模型。结果显示:柳林地区煤层渗透率回归方程具有较高的拟合度；多元逐步回归分析方法预测渗透率具有一定合理性；有利于煤层气开发的高渗区位于柳林地区中北部。 

Stepwise regression analysis and prediction of the coal reservoir permeability in Liulin area

Permeability is one of the most important factors in restricting commercial exploration of CBM, based on the well testing permeability obtained in CBM exploration stage, analyzing the influences of effective stress, coal reservoir pressure, and coal bed burial depth on permeability, the paper predicted the permeability of coal reservoir by stepwise regression analysis. The regression equation has a high fitting degree, multiple stepwise regression analysis is rational to some extent in predicting permeability; Also it indicates the higher-permeability region in favor of CBM exploration is in the north-central of Liulin area.