|
|||||
|
|
A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments |
|
| Authors: | Julie A Winkler Suzanne Thornsbury Marco Artavia Frank-M Chmielewski Dieter Kirschke Sangjun Lee Malgorzata Liszewska Scott Loveridge Pang-Ning Tan Sharon Zhong Jeffrey A Andresen J Roy Black Robert Kurlus Denys Nizalov Nicole Olynk Zbigniew Ustrnul Costanza Zavalloni Jeanne M Bisanz Géza Bujdosó Lesley Fusina Yvonne Henniges Peter Hilsendegen Katarzyna Lar Lukasz Malarzewski Thordis Moeller Roman Murmylo Tadeusz Niedzwiedz Olena Nizalova Haryono Prawiranata Nikki Rothwell Jenni van Ravensway Harald von Witzke Mollie Woods |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 118 Geography Building, East Lansing, MI, 48824-1117, USA 2. Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan Sate University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA 3. Department of Agricultural Economics and Policy, Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany 4. Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany 5. Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland 6. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824, USA 7. Department of Pomology, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Poznan, Poland 8. Kyiv Economics Institute, Kyiv School of Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine 9. Department of Climatology, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland 10. Department of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of Udine, Udine, Italy 11. Research Institute for Fruit Growing and Ornamentals, Budapest, Hungary 12. DLR Rheinpfalz, Oppenheim, Germany 13. Department of Climatology, University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland 14. Department of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany 15. Northwest Horticultural Research Station, Michigan State University, 6686 S. Center Highway, Traverse City, MI, 49684, USA |
| Abstract: | A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems. |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |