中央气象台短期降雨预报水平初步分析

该文利用1988～1993年资料，对中央气象台降雨预报水平状况进行了初步分析。结果表明:最近6年，中央气象台的有雨预报、小雨预报、中雨预报和等级综合预报的准确率和技巧水平均有不同程度的提高；暴雨和大暴雨两个等级的落点预报的准确率均超过气候概率，具有正技巧（技巧评分＞0），但技巧水平提高不明显。

A Preliminary Analysis of Short-Range Forecasting Level for Precipitation By Central Meteorological Office of China

The short-range (0~24, 24~48 h) forecasting level for precipitation during 1988~1993 is analysed by Central Meteorological Office. The results show that the forecast accuracy and forecast skill of Yes/No for rain (≥0.1 mm), light rain (0.1~9.9 mm) and moderate rain (10.0~24.9 mm) were increased last six years, varying degrees. Although forecast skill scores of Yes/No for heavy rain (25.0~49.9 mm), torrential rain (50.0~99.9 mm) and heavy torrential rain (≥100.0 mm) were positive (＞0), the improvement on forecast skill was not remarkable.