6月份格陵兰海冰异常对黄河中上游7月份旱涝的影响

通过北极4个区的海水DQ%指数和全国160站7月份降水关系的诊断分析指出，6月份格陵兰海冰异常与黄河中上游7月份旱涝存在着明显的联系，6月份格陵兰海冰少(多)时，黄河中上游7月份易涝（旱）。产生这种联系的物理机制是6月份格陵兰海冰异常影响7月份欧亚大气环流，导致黄河中上游7月份降水产生异常。通过对相关场进行显著性检验，确认了6月份格陵兰海冰异常与黄河中上游7月份旱涝联系在统计上的可靠性。同时发现，有时随机数序列与气象要素场的相关场会达到很高的显著水平，而且这种相关场中的显著相关区的分布并不是杂乱无章的，而是成片分布的。这项工作指出了把对相关场的显著性检验与相关场成因的物理机制分析相结合的必要性。

The Effect of Greenland Sea Ice Anomaly in June on the Drought-flood in Upper-middle Reaches of Yellow River in July

By using the relationship between DQ% index of sea ice in 4 regions of Arctic and the precipitation for 160 stations in July over China, the diagnostic study is made. It is pointed out that there is close correlationship between Greenland sea ice anomaly in June and the droughts-floods in upper-middle reaches of Yellow River in July. When Greenland sea ice in June is below (above) normal, the flood (drought) is easily happened in upper-middle reaches of Yellow River in July. The physical mechanism of this correlation is investigated. Based on the significance test of the correlation field, the statistical reliability of the correlation above mentioned is confirmed. It is also found that the correlation between random number series and meteorological element fields sometime can reach high significance level, and that distribution of significance correlation area in the correlation field is not in disorder, but in ordinal area. The article shows that it is necessary to combine the significance test of correlation field with the physical mechanism analysis of causing of it.