气候变暖对水稻生育期影响的情景分析

温度是影响作物发育速度的基本因子之一，温度的高低决定生育期的长短。利用全国水稻生态试验资料，分析了不同气候带的水稻生育期与温度的关系。结果指出，水稻生育期平均气温升高1℃，生育期日数平均缩短7.6日。温室效应使气温升高1～4℃，将导致我国各地水稻的一季稻和早稻生育期缩短；东部地区目前的生育期等日期线北移；东北地区北移1～5个纬度；黄淮地区北移3～6个纬度。通过调整种植季节，选用合适的水稻生态类型，以水调温措施，可以减少生育期缩短的日数。

The Scenario Analysis of Possible Effect of Warming Climate on Rice Growing Period

Temperature is one of basic factors to influence the growth and development of crops, and decides the length of growing period. The relationships between the length of rice growing period and temperature are analysed by using data of rice ecological experiment. The results show that during rice growing period, when mean temperature rises 1℃, the days of growing period decreases 7.6 days. According to experts’ prediction, air temperature will rise 1~4℃, due to warming climate, which makes the growing period of single cropping rice and early rice in China shorten. The isogram of the date of growing period in the eastern China will remove northwards, 1~5 degrees latitude in Northeast China, 3~6 degrees in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The growing period’s getting shorter can be mitigated by taking following measures: adjusting the planting season, selecting appropriate rice ecological types and regulating temperature with water