Meteorological fields variability over the Indian seas in pre and summer monsoon months during extreme monsoon seasons

In this study, the possible linkage between summer monsoon rainfall over India and surface meteorological fields (basic fields and heat budget components) over monsoon region (30‡E-120‡E, 30‡S30‡N) during the pre-monsoon month of May and summer monsoon season (June to September) are examined. For this purpose, monthly surface meteorological fields anomaly are analyzed for 42 years (1958-1999) using reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research). The statistical significance of the anomaly (difference) between the surplus and deficient monsoon years in the surface meteorological fields are also examined by Student’s t-test at 95% confidence level. Significant negative anomalies of mean sea level pressure are observed over India, Arabian Sea and Arabian Peninsular in the pre-monsoon month of May and monsoon season. Significant positive anomalies in the zonal and meridional wind (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed in the west Arabian Sea off Somali coast and for monsoon season it is in the central Arabian Sea that extends up to Somalia. Significant positive anomalies of the surface temperature and air temperature (at 2 m) in the month of May are observed over north India and adjoining Pakistan and Afghanistan region. During monsoon season this region is replaced by significant negative anomalies. In the month of May, significant positive anomalies of cloud amount are observed over Somali coast, north Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal and Bangladesh. During monsoon season, cloud amount shows positive anomalies over NW India and north Arabian Sea. There is overall reduction in the incoming shortwave radiation flux during surplus monsoon years. A higher magnitude of latent heat flux is also found in surplus monsoon years for the month of May as well as the monsoon season. The significant positive anomaly of latent heat flux in May, observed over southwest Arabian Sea, may be considered as an advance indicator of the possible behavior of the subsequent monsoon season. The distribution of net heat flux is predominantly negative over eastern Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean. Anomaly between the two extreme monsoon years in post 1980 (i.e., 1988 and 1987) shows that shortwave flux, latent heat flux and net heat flux indicate reversal in sign, particularly in south Indian Ocean. Variations of the heat budget components over four smaller sectors of Indian seas, namely Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and west Indian Ocean and east Indian Ocean show that a small sector of Arabian Sea is most dominant during May and other sectors showing reversal in sign of latent heat flux during monsoon season.