ENSO循环对西太平洋副高和福建汛期旱涝的影响

利用1951-2000年北太平洋海温和副高特征量资料，探讨了夏半年副高与前期海温的关系，发现影响副高活动的海温关键区赤道东太平洋前期信息最明显，从前期秋季持续至春季都保持与夏半年各月副高强度、西伸脊点位置的高相关；ENSO事件的形成超前于副高强度的转折约半年时间；El Nino年副高持续偏强偏西，La Nina年则相反，脊线位置也有所反映但不如强度与西伸变化显著。在此基础上进一步分析表明，福建雨季(5-6月)降水分布的异常直接受到副高活动的影响，夏季(7-9月)全省大部旱涝也直接受到副高南北位置差异的影响。而副高活动异常又明显受ENSO循环的制约，因而关注赤道东太平洋海温及ENSO信息对福建汛期旱涝与降水分布趋势的预测具有重要意义。

Effect of ENSO Cycle on West Pacific Subtropical High and Drought/Flood in Fujian during Rainy Season

Relationship between the variations of West Pacific subtropical high indices in summer half year and North Pacific SST in the previous stage is examined based on data of 1951-2000.The correlation between the subtropical high indices and the preceding SST in equatorial East Pacific is the strongest among the areas with great persistency from preceding autumn to spring.It is indicated that ENSO events appeared about a half year earlier than the change of the subtropical high activities and that the subtropical high intensity enhanced(weakened) and west terminal point moved westward (eastward) in the year of El Nino (La Nina) event.The result shows that the distribution of rainfall during rainy season in Fujian is greatly affected by subtropical high activities, which in turn are restricted by ENSO.So it is of significance to pay attention to equatorial East Pacific SST and ENSO information for short-term climate prediction.