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| 中国大陆强震月季预测三步法和2010年实际预测检查 | |
| 引用本文： | 汤懋苍,廖留峰,郭维栋,梅秀苹,高晓清.中国大陆强震月季预测三步法和2010年实际预测检查[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(3):903-907. |
| 作者姓名： | 汤懋苍 廖留峰 郭维栋 梅秀苹 高晓清 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000 2. 中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,兰州730000;中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 3. 南京大学大气科学学院,南京,210093 4. 中国地震局兰州地震研究所,兰州,730000 |
| 基金项目： | 国家973项目，国家自然科学基金而上项目 |
| 摘 要： | 本文提出了强震成因的外核对流上升体顶托说,根据强震前时纬残差的大振幅摆动的观测结果,在一些假定之下,可估算得到外核上升流的速度可达到100 m/s,比板块运动要快8个量级,它可能是整个地球内部最快的一种运动,是震、旱、涝等天灾的肇因.强震三要素预测的先后顺序是:震级、震中、和发生月季.2010年两次强震预测的三要素有1～2项预测准确,看来此强震预测三步法可以继续试验. |
| 关 键 词： | 强震月季预测 三步法 结果检查 |
Three-step method of microseism season prediction in China and the actual prediction check in 2010 |
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| TANG Mao-cang , LIAO Liu-feng , GUO Wei-dong , MEI Xiu-ping , GAO Xiao-qing.Three-step method of microseism season prediction in China and the actual prediction check in 2010[J].Progress in Geophysics,2012,27(3):903-907. | |
| Authors: | TANG Mao-cang LIAO Liu-feng GUO Wei-dong MEI Xiu-ping GAO Xiao-qing |
| Institution: | 1 (1.Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,CAS,Lanzhou 730000,China; 2.Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China; 3.School of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China; 4.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology;CEA,Lanzhou 730000,China) |
| Abstract: | This article shows that the genesis of the strong earthquake is the outer core convective fluid uprising the Crust-Mantle layer,According to the large amplitude oscillation observation results of time and latitude residuals,the speed of the outer core convective upwelling could be estimated up to 100m / s in some hypothetical,which may be is one of the fastest movement within the earth,8 orders of magnitude faster than the plate movement.So it is the causes of the earthquake,drought,floods and other natural disasters.Sequence of three elements predict are:magnitude,epicenter,and the season of earthquake occurrence.But we need to find another method if want to make short-term prediction.According two earthquake predict in 2010,there always have 1 or 2 projections of the three elements are correct,it seems that this three-step method of earthquake prediction can be continued. |
| Keywords: | season prediction of macroseism three-step method checking the result |
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