| 辽宁地区5级以上地震复发间隔及地震概率预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李俏,逯绍锋.辽宁地区5级以上地震复发间隔及地震概率预测模型研究[J].东北地震研究,2012,28(2):29-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李俏 逯绍锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 辽宁省地震局,辽宁沈阳,110034
2. 沈阳市地震局,辽宁沈阳,110001 |
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| 摘 要： | 详细分析了辽宁地区三个震级档的地震复发间隔分布；基于Poisson分布，构建了辽宁地区5．0、5．5和6．0级三个震级档的Poisson概率预测模型及具有概率水平指标的三级预测预警指标。
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| 关 键 词： | 辽宁地区 5级以上地震 复发间隔 概率预测模型 |
RECURRENCE INTERVAL AND PROBABILITY PREDICTION MODEL OF THE EARTHQUAKES MORE THAN 5.0 MAGNITUDE IN LIAONING PROVINCE |
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| LI Qiao,LU Shao-feng.RECURRENCE INTERVAL AND PROBABILITY PREDICTION MODEL OF THE EARTHQUAKES MORE THAN 5.0 MAGNITUDE IN LIAONING PROVINCE[J].Seismological Research of Northeast China,2012,28(2):29-33. |
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| Authors: | LI Qiao LU Shao-feng |
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| Institution: | 1.Earthquake Administration of Liaoning Province, Liaoning Shenyang 110034, China; 2. Earthquake Administration of Shenyang City, Liaoning Shenyang 110001, China ) |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyses the earthquake recurrence interval distribution of three magnitude intervals. Based on the Poisson distribution, it also builds the probability prediction model of three magnitude intervals including magnitude 5.0, 5.5 and 6.0 and establishes the forecasting warning index of the above three magnitude levels. |
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| Keywords: | Liaoning region earthquakes more than 5 0 magnitude recurrence interval probability prediction model |
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