A numerical technique for simulation of cloud seeding experiments |
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Authors: | A Mary Selvam A S Ramachandra Murty Bh V Ramana Murty |
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Institution: | 1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, 411 005, Poona
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Abstract: | Two numerical cloud seeding experiments, using historic rainfall for the Deccan plateau region in Maharashtra state, were performed adopting different simulation techniques. The data used consisted of 1-day total rainfall for the 5-year period 1951–55. A double-area cross-over design with area randomisation was adopted. The first experiment, EXP-TR, was based on the simulation technique of Twomey and Robertson which involves about 100 hr of Robotron EC-1040 computer time. The second experiment, EXP-MMM was based on a different simulation technique proposed in the present study. The results of EXP-TR and EXP-MMM have shown close agreement. The numerical simulation technique of EXP-MMM is more promising for the following two reasons: (i) the computational time is reduced by about an order of magnitude without compromising the scientific value of the results, and (ii) a direct estimate of the lower limit of the double ratio value which can be detected at 5% level of significance is defined. The results of the two numerical experiments suggested that, for the Deccan plateau region, 15 and 20% increases in rainfall due to seeding could be detected with 80% or more probability in 5 years. |
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