近期天山地震带地震活动固体潮调制的统计分析

利用Schuster检验方法, 以潮汐体应力为计算量, 采用2010年1月1日至2012年8月31日天山中东段M_L≥2.0的地震数据, 对天山地震带地震活动受固体潮触发情况从时、 空两方面进行统计分析。 研究结果显示, Schuster检验p值时间窗平滑结果与天山地震带较强地震的发生对应较好, 尤其是2011年11月1日尼勒克6.0级地震之前很长一段时间, Schuster检验p值时间窗平滑结果一直低于潮汐触发地震的阈值0.05, 而尼勒克6.0级地震发生后, 该值迅速恢复到较高水平, 反应了此次地震的发生与固体潮的密切关系; 从Schuster检验p值空间窗平滑结果看, 尼勒克6.0级地震也处于或接近潮汐调制触发地区。 因而, 从时、 空两方面的检验结果看, 尼勒克6.0级地震的发生受固体潮调制明显。

Statistical Analysis on Tidal Triggering of Recent Earthquakes in the Tianshan Seismic Zone

A statistical analysis on earthquake activity in the Tianshan seismic belt triggered by tideswas spatio-temporally studied based on Schuster’s test. The data was chosen from January 1, 2010 to August 31, 2012 with M_L≥2.0 in the east of the Tianshan, forthe tidal body stress asthe calculation. The results showed that the p-value based on the time window smoothing of the Schuster’s test corresponded better with the strong earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic belt,especially that a long time before November 1, 2011 Nilka 6.0 earthquake, the p-value of the Schuster’s test was always lower than the threshold for tidal trigger of earthquake 0.05, however,that value was quickly restored to a high level after the Nilka 6.0 earthquake, this reflected a close relationship between the Nilka 6.0 earthquake and the Earth tide. According to the p-value based on the spatial window smoothing of the Schuster’s test, Nilka 6.0 earthquake was at or near the tidal triggering area. Judgingfrom the spatio-temporal results, thet Nilka 6.0 earthquake was obviously triggered by Earth tides.