气候变暖背景下青藏高原山地灾害及其风险分析

基于青藏高原1930-2010年山地灾害实例，分析了气候变暖对青藏高原山地灾害的影响。结果表明：在气候变暖背景下，冰湖溃决灾害增多，冰川泥石流趋于活跃，特大灾害出现频繁，灾害链生特征明显，表现出时间和空间上的延拓性，巨灾发生概率增大；在藏东南地区表现出雨热同期的气候特征，构成了利于冰川类泥石流形成的条件；波密县城位于两条泥石流危险区的建筑物占地面积由1988年0.014 km²扩展到2012年1.004 km²，人口与经济密集区与灾害高风险区重叠，加之气候变化导致的灾害危险性增加，青藏高原灾害风险显著增大。上述结果提供了气候变化对青藏高原山地灾害影响的证据，初步阐述了其影响特征，有助于山地减灾和进一步认识气候变化对山地灾害的影响机理。

Risk Analysis of Mountain Hazards in Tibetan Plateau Under Global Warming

Based on the mountain hazards events in the Tibetan Plateau during the period of 1930-2010, the impacts of global warming on mountain hazards in alpine area were analyzed. Under the circumstance of global warming, glacial lake outburst disaster and glacial debris tended to be more active. Disaster chain was apparent and showed a tendency of spatial and temporal extension, associated with the increasing occurrences of catastrophe. It showed a climatic characteristics of rain and heat occurring in the same period, which constituted a favorable combination for the formation of glacial debris in the southeast region of Tibet. Building distribution in debris-flow risky areas of Sangdeng Gully and Ganong Gully with an area of 0.014 km² in 1988 extended to 1.004 km² in 2012, economic activity overlapped with the high risk areas coupled with the increasing disaster risk due to climate change, and thus disaster risk in mountain regions significantly increased. The above results provide evidence about the impact of climate change on mountain hazards in Tibetan Plateau and preliminarily describe characteristics of the impact, which will help to reduce mountain hazards and further understand the corresponding impact mechanism.