湖北省暴雨洪涝致灾指标研究

使用气象、水文观测以及灾情调查和地理信息等资料，基于GIS暴雨洪涝淹没模型，对2016年7月19—20日汉北河流域强降水造成的洪涝淹没状况进行模拟，利用气象灾情采集系统APP以及民政、电力部门的相关灾情资料对其模拟精度进行检验。结果表明:模拟的主要淹没区出现在汉北河流域上、中段(荆门、天门)河道附近及地势低洼地，其淹没水深多为0~2 m，随着洪水增强，低水深区间淹没范围减小，高水深区间淹没范围增大，其中荆门地区1 m以上水深淹没范围增大较快；与实况相比，模拟的灾情点位的匹配率为84%~100%，模拟水深的绝对误差为0.0~0.9 m，洪水淹没地点和水深模拟与实况基本吻合。

Simulation and test of a rainstorm flood event in Hanbei river basin based on GIS inundation model

Based on a GIS rainstorm flood inundation model, we have conducted a simulation of the flood inundation conditions caused by a severe precipitation event occurred in the Hanbei river basin from July 19 to 20 in 2016 by using meteorological and hydrological observations, disaster investigation and geographical information data. The simulation accuracy is then tested based on multiple sources of information from meteorological disaster collecting system APP, civil administration and power department. The results show that the main submerged area simulated is situated in the upper and middle reaches and the low-lying land of Hanbei river basin, in which most of submerged depth is between 0 m and 2 m. The submergence range at the low water depth sections decreases and the one at the high water depth sections increases with the strengthen of flood, of which submerged area over the water depth of 1 m in Jingmen extended rapidly. Comparing to the investigations, the matching rate of the simulated disaster points is 84%-100%, and the absolute error of submerged depth simulated is 0.0-0.9 m, which indicates that the simulated flood sites and submerged depths are in agreement with the investigations on the whole.