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The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: a partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments |
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| Authors: | Robert E. Kopp Jerry X. Mitrovica Stephen M. Griffies Jianjun Yin Carling C. Hay Ronald J. Stouffer |
| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Geosciences and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA 2. AAAS Science and Technology Policy Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC, 20005, USA 3. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA 4. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, 08542, USA 5. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32306, USA 6. Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5S 1A7, Canada |
| Abstract: | Local sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic “water-hosing” experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, we find that geographic SE patterns should be challenging but possible to detect above dynamic variability. At higher melt rates, we find that DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects will dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds ~20 cm equivalent sea level. |
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