“我国重大天气灾害形成机理与预测理论研究”取得的主要研究成果

国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“我国重大天气灾害形成机理与预测理论研究”经过项目全体科学家的５年研究，取得了一系列重要的研究成果：①提出了基于多种实时观测资料的梅雨锋暴雨的多尺度物理模型；②建立了梅雨锋暴雨的天气学模型；③梅雨锋是由多个不同尺度系统构成的梅雨锋系，它具有介于温带锋系结构与热带辐合带结构之间的副热带锋系结构，在长江中下游可以有时表现为双峰结构。锋前的湿物理过程与锋上强对流系统发展形成的正反馈过程以及梅雨锋系的不同尺度系统的相互作用是梅雨锋维持与发展的重要机制；④提出了多种中尺度暴雨的定量卫星遥感反演理论和方法，并形成一系列新的反演产品；⑤成功地研究了双多普勒雷达同步探测和反演中尺度暴雨三维结构的理论和方法；⑥发展了配有三维变分同化系统的中尺度暴雨数值预报模式系统，在2003年淮河抗洪救灾中发挥了积极作用；⑦成功组织了2001/2002年长江中下游梅雨锋暴雨野外科学试验，在野外试验中还开展了中日国际合作，在此基础上项目建立了规范、完善、使用便捷的暴雨野外试验数据库，实现了数据共享。

Main Scientific Issues and Achievements of State 973 Project on Study for Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theories of Severe Weather Disasters in China

The project on study for formation mechanism and theories and methods of detection and prediction of severe weather disasters in China from National Key Basic Research Development Program has been studied by all the scientists from this project for five years. It has been made important progresses including seven aspects related to heavy rainfall: (1) Muti scales physical models of heavy rainfall within the Meiyu front based on the real time observed data have been proposed; (2) It has established a synoptic model for heavy rainfall within the Meiyu front; (3) Meiyu front is Meiyu frontal system which consists of multi synoptic systems with different space time scales. It has structure characteristics of sub tropical frontal system which is between structure characteristics of extra tropical frontal system and ITCZ. However, sometime it has dual peaks structure in the middle downstream of Yangtze River. And its maintenance and development mechanism has also been discussed; (4) Several kinds of quantitative remote sensing retrieval theories and methods have been proposed for meso scale heavy rainfall; (5) Dual Dopplor detecting methods and retrieval theories for meso scale heavy rainfall have successfully been studied; (6) The meso scale heavy rainfall numerical prediction model system with 3Dvar has been developed; (7) The field experiments of heavy rainfall within Meiyu front in the middle and down stream of the Yangtze River have successfully been organized in 2001 and 2002. And in the experiments we collaborated with Japans scientists. Base on these experiments, the database of heavy rainfall has been established and all the scientists can share all these data. The above progresses showed that the project on heavy rainfall study has been reached to the goals and finished the tasks in the last five years. It is substantial scientific base for advancing deeply studying of heavy rainfall in China. In this paper, we also discussed some problems existing in implementation of this project and further study in the future.