| Abstract: | The ecosystem model of the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary (GEMBASE) was fitted to 3 years of survey data, and has subsequently been validated against a further 5 years of monitoring data. A control chart technique clearly demonstrates that the model is, on the whole, an adequate representation of the estuarine carbon cycle, although the precision of model estimates reduces with increasing trophic level. An ecosystem model of the Ems Estuary has been adapted to simulate the Severn Estuary, and the impact of introducing a notional tidal power scheme assessed. The results were compared to those obtained using GEMBASE in the Severn. The broad predictions from both models are in agreement, although some detail is at variance, which implies that the fundamental ecological assumptions of the models are compatible. |
