Predictions for the Aurigid Outburst of 2007 September 1

The September 2007 encounter of Earth with the 1-revolution dust trail of comet C/1911 N1 (Kiess) is the most highly anticipated dust trail crossing of a known long period comet in the next 50 years. The encounter was modeled to predict the expected peak time, duration, and peak rate of the resulting outburst of Aurigid shower meteors. The Aurigids will radiate with a speed of 67 km/s from a radiant at R.A. = 92°, Decl. = +39° (J2000) in the constellation Auriga. The expected peak time is 11:36 ± 20 min UT, 2007 September 1, and the shower is expected to peak at Zenith Hourly Rate = 200/h during a 10-min interval, being above half this value during 25 min. The meteor outburst will be visible by the naked eye from locations in Mexico, the Western provinces of Canada, and the Western United States, including Hawaii and Alaska. A concerted observing campaign is being organized. Added in proof: first impression of the shower. Prepared as a contribution to the conference proceedings of “Meteoroids 2007”, to be published in the journal “Earth, Moon, and Planets”.