中国东海海平面变化多尺度周期分析与预测

海平面变化规律尤其是对海平面变化周期和上升趋势的研究,已成为国内外科学界研究的热点问题.使用1992-2009年海平面卫星测高仪数据资料,运用小波变换方法对中国东海海平面变化的周平均数据信号进行多尺度周期分析,并通过Winters指数平滑法对未来海平面变化进行预测,结果显示:①1992-2009年东海海平面呈现波动上升...

Analysis and Prediction of Sea-Level-Change Multi-Scale Cycle for East China Sea

Research of sea level change has become the hot issue in the world,especially in the variability cycle and upward trend of sea level.In this paper,wavelet transform was applied in the sea-level change multi-scale cycle analysis of monthly average data signal in East China Sea,and future sea-level change was predicted by the way of winters exponential smoothing.The results show: ① Sea level showed upward trend in volatility in East China between 1992 to 2009,the annual average growth rate was up to about 0.39 cm/a;it had multi-scale cycle feature as follows: 2 to 3 months,12 months(1a),24 months(2a),36 months(3 a),48 months(4a),55 months(4.6a).② Sea level data denoising signal showed upward trend more obvious than the original signal.Compared to annual maximum of sea level height(in annual summer and autumn),sea level rise was more evident,and the average growth rate is up to about 0.78cm/a,and it was 2 times of the average annual growth rate.③ Future sea level changes(after 2006) will maintain an upward trend with fluctuations in East China Sea.Annual average growth rate will be about 0.49 cm/a.By 2015,sea level rise rate will be about 4 cm to 5 cm higher than 2006;The rate of sea level rise will increase to about 14 cm to 15 cm by the year 2030 on the basis of the year 2006.