Analysis of rainfall causal relationships in the Sudan

Monthly rainfalls of the main rainy period (April – October) in Sudan are quantitatively related to atmospheric factors which include vertical atmospheric motion and the depth of maritime SW winds. Other atmospheric properties which are studied in relation to rainfall include the thermal and moisture factors. From these specified factors a logical consideration of cause and effect is made with respect to rainfall over the Sudan as a whole. Multiple regression analysis has been used as a valuable tool in such analysis of causal relationships. It is also a useful technique by which to obtain reasonable estimates of rainfall for areas without rain gauges, and to assess the relative importance of causative factors of the rainfall amounts and spatial variations. Other statistical techniques used for examining the causal analysis are those of simple, partial and multiple correlation coefficients.