对地震地下流体学科研究与发展问题的思考

依据地下流体存在趋势性异常和短临异常的基本观测事实, 提出“应力-应变效应说与水诱发异常说并重”的地下流体地震预报研究的科学思路。按照这一思路, 对地震地下流体观测的布网与选井原则提出了新的补充意见; 认为降水及其相关的地表水、地下水及大范围抽水等是地形变、地应变、地应力、水化及地电阻率等多种前兆异常产生的调制与诱发因素, 因而需要对原来的干扰因素的内涵作修正; 对地下流体前兆异常做了新定义及主要特征的归纳; 对于今后的工作, 提出了加强对地下流体短临前兆异常重现性的研究、加强对浅层地下流体的调制与诱发作用的研究以及积极促进地震地下流体学与其他相关学科的交叉与融合等建议。

Thinking regarding study and development of seismic subsurface fluid subject

Basedon the basic observational facts that there exist tendence and short-term and imminent anomalies of subsurface fluid, a scientific conception that earthquake prediction′s re search of subsurface fluid should pay equal attention to stress-straineffect; and “induced groundwater anomalies” has been put forward. According to the conception, new complementa rity thinking for the distribution of observational network of seismic subsurface fluid and principle of choosing well has been put forward. It considers that a tmo spheric water and its relevant surface water as well as ground water and pumping water in alarge range are concoction and induction factors for crustal deformation, earth-strain, earth stress, hydrochemistry, earth-resistivity and soon creating multi-precursory anomalies. So it is necessary that the connotation of original disturba nce factor should be modified and the precursory anomaly of subsurface fluid needs to be renewedly defined. The precursory anomalies of subsurface fluid have six basic characteristics. For the work in the future, ithas put forward three suggestions regarding enhancing the recurrent character′s re search of short-term and imminent precursory anomalies for subsurface fluid, enhancing the re search of concoction and induction role for shallowsubsurface fluid and actively prom oting the re search for seismic subsurface fluid subject to cross and syncretized with otherrelevant subjects.