Breaking recent global temperature records |
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Authors: | Gilbert W Bassett Jr |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Economics (m/c144), University of Illinois at Chicago, Box 802451, 60680-2451 Chicago, Il, USA |
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Abstract: | Global surface temperature was a record in 1988. What is the probability that this record will be surpassed in the next few years? Answers are provided given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature. The answers illustrate how record breaking is influenced by alternative model specifications. Estimates for the probability of a record are shown to range widely. If annual temperature is independent and identically distributed then a new record is unlikely. But probabilities increase rapidly if there is a trend or autocorrelation. Estimates of the probability of a record using data on global temperature suggest that another record in the next few years would not be a rare event. |
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