1950-2009年洞庭湖流域农业旱灾演变特征及趋势预测

洞庭湖流域为我国重要农业生产区,频发的旱灾始终是制约农业可持续发展的障碍因素.以1950-2009年的旱灾资料为依据,运用定量与定性相结合的方法,系统分析了该流域农业旱灾的演变特征及其发展趋势.结果表明：20世纪70年代、80年代和21世纪初期,不同等级的旱灾频发率均相对较高,其中特大旱灾频率最高的岀现在2000-20...

Agricultural Drought in Dongting Lake Basin in Recent 60 Years: Evolution Characteristics and Trend Prediction

Dongting Lake basin is one of the main agricultural production areas in China.The agricultural sustainable development in Dongting Lake basin is always restricted by frequent drought.Based on a series of drought data from 1950 to 2009,the evolution characteristics and changing trend of agricultural drought in Dongting Lake basin are analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative methods in this paper.It is found that: 1) In the 1970s,1980s and early 2000s,frequencies of drought of different grades were relative high,with the highest frequency of drought appearing between 2000 and 2009 and the frequency of drought year up to 80%;2) Drought-affected area ratio and drought-damaged area ratio have a high fluctuation in long-term scale.Light and heavy agricultural droughts appear alternatively,and the fluctuation range of anomaly of drought-damaged area ratio is rather remarkable;3) The anomaly indices of drought-affected area ratio and drought-damaged area ratio appear periodic and isochronous ascending and descendant,with episodic reverse fluctuation;4) The grey system prediction model reveals that there will be one light drought year in 2016 and two super drought years in 2013 and 2017,respectively.Thus,one can see that to prevent,fight and relieve drought is a long-term and tremendous mission in developing modern agriculture in Dongting Lake basin.