Spatial relationship of groundwater–phosphorus interaction in the Kissimmee river basin,South Florida

Fluctuations of groundwater levels were used to predict soluble phosphorus concentrations. In‐situ observations showed a decrease in soluble phosphorus during groundwater recession and an increase with groundwater rise. A spatial analysis of the simulated soluble phosphorus and groundwater levels indicated similarity of patterns (spatial correlation) 99% of the time. A geographically weighted multivariate analysis of soluble phosphorus using groundwater levels, phosphorus levels of the Kissimmee River, and distance from the Kissimmee River as predictors showed a goodness of fit (R²) ranging from 0.2 to 0.7. Results indicated no significant difference between the simulated and observed soluble phosphorus levels at a p value of 0.01. Among the parameters, the groundwater level explained 70% of the soluble phosphorus variability. The distance to surface waterbodies and their phosphorus levels had significant weights only within a 5‐km range from the waterbody. A model generalization is further required to simulate the spatiotemporal groundwater–phosphorus dynamics over meaningful temporal ranges – at least for 3 to 5 years – for conclusiveness of the data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.