人类活动对全球淡水循环影响与水行星边界评估研究进展

近几十年来，人类活动对淡水循环的影响已经超出了流域尺度。解决目前所面临的水资源问题，不应只着眼于流域过程，而应从更大的空间尺度——全球尺度对地球系统过程加以研究。文章总结了人类活动对全球淡水循环的影响途径，论述了水行星边界方法框架与研究进展，分析了淡水利用管理从流域尺度到全球尺度的实现方法。水行星边界方法以地球系统科学理论为指导，以保持地球系统稳定运行为目标，将淡水循环研究视野从流域尺度扩展至全球尺度，定量描述了全球淡水利用安全运行空间，成为评价全球水资源可持续性的重要方法。水资源管理既要考虑流域尺度的水资源、生态与经济社会发展关系，也要考虑全球尺度的水循环、地球系统稳定与全球可持续发展关系。水行星边界是对现有区域水资源承载能力评价方法的重要补充，为全球与区域淡水资源治理提供了重要的方法框架。根据我国自然资源管理新制度下水资源管理需要，针对水行星边界评估，建议加强全球淡水循环过程研究，完善全球水文模型与模拟预测平台；加强水行星边界与土地、生物、大气等其他行星边界的相互影响与作用研究；探索应用水行星边界框架完善资源环境承载能力评价和国土空间开发适宜性评价方法。

Research progress of the anthropogenic influences on global freshwater cycle and the water planetary boundary assessment

In recent decades, the effect of human activities on freshwater cycle transgressed the catchment scale. In order to solve the global and regional water problems effectively, a new framework is needed to transform from the traditional hydrology which focuses on catchment processes to the global-scale hydrology which focuses on the earth system processes. Based on the recent progress of global hydrology, this paper summarizes the patterns of anthropogenic effect on global freshwater cycle, reviews the framework of Planetary Boundaries for Water (PBW) and the research progress, and analyzes the possible approaches of freshwater management from the catchment scale to the global scale. Directed by the Earth system science, PBW pushes forward water cycle research to the global scale from the local and catchment scale, and evaluates the safe operating space of global freshwater use, with the aim to maintain the functions of the Earth system. The framework provides an important merit to evaluate the global sustainability of water resources. Water management should not only balance off the relations of water resources, ecological environment and socio-economic development locally, but also the relations of water cycle, Earth system functions and global sustainability. PBW is an important supplement to the watershed or aquifer management, and puts forward a new framework for the global and regional water management. In order to meet the demand of water management under the new system of natural resources management in China, the study of PBW should focuses on the following aspects: to establish global hydrological models and simulation and prediction platform on the basis of better understanding of global water cycle; to advance the study of relations between PBW and other planetary boundaries such as land use, biodiversity, and atmospheric CO₂; to improve the double evaluation approaches (resource and environment carrying capacity, territorial development suitability) for territorial spatial planning with the framework of PBW.