| 泥石流沟谷演化的不等时距灰色预测* |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋忠信. 泥石流沟谷演化的不等时距灰色预测*[J]. 地理研究, 1994, 13(3): 53-59. DOI: 10.11821/yj1994030006 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋忠信 |
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| 作者单位： | 铁道部第二勘测设计院科研所 |
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| 基金项目： | 院《新建铁路泥石流灾害预测》项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 泥石流沟谷纵剖面形态系表征泥石流发育的综合地形指标.本文以利子依达沟为例,用不等时距GM(1,1)预测沟谷纵剖面形态指数N值的变化,并改进了预测模型的精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 沟谷纵剖面 不等时距灰色预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 1993-04-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 1993-11-08 |
AN UNEQUAL INTERVAL GRAY FORECAST TO THED EVELOPMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW VALLEY |
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| Jiang Zhongxin. AN UNEQUAL INTERVAL GRAY FORECAST TO THED EVELOPMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW VALLEY[J]. Geographical Research, 1994, 13(3): 53-59. DOI: 10.11821/yj1994030006 |
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| Authors: | Jiang Zhongxin |
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| Affiliation: | The Second Surveying and Desiging Institute, Ministiy of Railway |
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| Abstract: | The shape of longitudinal profile of a debris flow valley contains the information about the evolution of the basin and the development of the debris flow, and is a synthetical topographic factor which indicates the develoment of the debris flow. Taking the Liziyida valley along the Chendu-Kunming railway as an example, the paper forecasts the change of the forming index N of the longitudinal profile of the valley by using the unequal intervaI GM (1,1),and improves the accuracy of the forecast method. Finally relevant problems in forecasting valley evolution are discussed. |
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| Keywords: | Debris flow Longitudinal profile of valley Gray forecast |
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