气候变化对天津市不同节能水平建筑制冷采暖能耗的影响

利用天津市地面气象观测站1961—2017年逐小时观测资料，通过TRNSYS软件，对不同节能水平办公建筑供热和制冷能耗，以及居住建筑供热能耗进行动态模拟，定量评估了气候变化对天津市不同节能水平建筑能耗的影响。结果表明：在供暖期和制冷期，温度均呈现显著上升的趋势，而太阳辐射则呈现下降的趋势，受其影响，1961—2017年办公和居住建筑供热能耗呈现显著下降的趋势，制冷能耗呈现微弱的上升趋势，但气候变化对供热能耗的影响要明显强于制冷能耗；随着建筑节能水平的提升，供热和制冷能耗均有一定程度的下降，其中供热能耗的降幅尤为明显，四步节能居住建筑相比于一步到三步节能居住建筑，供热能耗分别下降了53.56%、50.13%和21.25%。对新建建筑及既有建筑的节能改造，应充分考虑不同节能水平对建筑能耗的影响，结合实际需求酌情进行升级改造。除此之外，建筑节能水平的提升，会使其供热和制冷能耗变化量随温度的上升而减小，说明其对气候变化的敏感性在逐渐减弱。因此，提高建筑节能水平，可以更好的应对气候变化，保证其在未来的使用中耗能更低。

Effects of climate change on cooling and heating energy consumption of buildings with different energy-saving levels in Tianjin

Based on the hourly data of ground meteorological observation in Tianjin from 1961 to 2017, the heating and cooling energy consumption (CEC) of office buildings, and the heating energy consumption (HEC) of residential buildings with different energy-saving levels were simulated by TRNSYS software.On this basis, the impacts of climate change on energy consumption of buildings with different energy-saving levels in Tianjin were quantitatively evaluated.The results show that temperature increases significantly and solar radiation decreases during the heating and cooling periods.As a result, the HEC and CEC of office and residential buildings decreases obviously and increases slightly during 1961 to 2017, respectively, indicating that the influence of climate change on the HEC is larger than on the CEC.With the improvement of energy-saving level of buildings, both the HEC and CEC show a decreasing trend, especially significant for the HEC.Compared with the one- to three-step residential buildings, the HEC of the four-stage energy saving buildings decreases 53.56%, 50.13% and 21.25%, respectively.Thus, the impact of energy-saving levels on energy consumption of buildings should be taken into account for new buildings and energy efficiency renovations of existing buildings, and upgrading and reconstruction should be conducted according to actual energy demand.In addition, the increasing of the energy-saving level in buildings will promote the variations of the HEC and CEC decreasing with warming, indicating that the sensitivity of building energy consumption to climate change is gradually weakening.Therefore, the increasing of energy-saving level in buildings can play a better role in dealing with climate change and reduce the building energy use in the future.