吉林省高温天气气候特征及其过程等级评估

利用1951—2018年吉林省50站逐日最高气温资料，采用气候倾向率、距平累积、灰色关联度、正态分布等方法分析了吉林省高温天气的时空分布特征、建立了吉林省高温过程综合指数、高温过程评估等级指标和气候重现期指标。结果表明：近68 a来，吉林省年平均高温日数总体呈增加趋势，气候倾向率为0.04 d/10 a。吉林省高温次数阶段性变化明显，1959—1996年为偏少时段；1951—1958年、1997—2018年为偏多阶段。吉林省高温天气主要出现在6月中旬至8月中旬，其中7月下旬最多，8月上旬次多。西部为高温的高发区，吉林省年平均高温日数呈自西向东减少特征。对高温过程进行了等级划分，并给出等级及气候重现期评估指标，对于高温过程，可采用综合指数评估指标和各分项评估指标进行评估，便于在决策业务中应用。

Study on climatic characteristics and assessment methods of high temperature weather in Jilin province

Using the daily maximum temperature data of 50 stations in Jilin province from 1951 to 2018, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of high temperature weather in Jilin province were analyzed by means of climate tendency rate, anomaly accumulation, gray correlation degree and normal distribution.The comprehensive index of high temperature process, index of high temperature process evaluation and index of climate recurrence period were established.The results show that in recent 68 years, the annual average number of high temperature days in Jilin province has an increasing trend, with 0.04 d per decade.The number of high temperature in Jilin province demonstrates its change feature in different period of time.Less number of the high temperatures occurred during 1959 to 1996 whereas more number of the high temperatures happened during 1951-1958 and 1997-2018.The high temperature weather in Jilin province mainly occurs in mid-June to mid-august, with the most in late July and more in early August.The western part of Jilin province is a high-temperature area.The average number of high-temperature days decreases from west to east of Jilin province.This paper classifies the high temperature process and gives an evaluation index of grade and climate recurrence period.For the high temperature process, the comprehensive index evaluation index and each sub-item evaluation index can be used to evaluate.It is convenient to apply in decision-making operation.