古今气候略论

自2009年入冬以来北半球经受了创记录的严寒侵袭,联合国IPCC报告的权威性受到质疑。地球气候变化趋向陷入纷争的境地。从地质学和考古学的视角,以更长的时间周期去认识和了解气候变化规律和成因机制,或许对将来气候的长期预报有所启示。地球在漫长的演化史中经历了以千万年计的＂地质气候旋回＂、千百年计的＂史前气候周期＂及近现代以百年计的＂世纪气候波动＂。不同级次的周期均为内在自然因素所制约,CO2含量在地球演化史中趋于波动下降过程,当代的CO2浓度和气温均处于地质史的低点。人类活动可能在百年尺度内存在对气候和生态环境的影响。自20世纪初开始至今近百年升温趋向中,令人关注的是在中国曾有1941年、1969年、2009~2010年之交极度低温的出现,＂低温节点＂时距约为30~40年,似与海洋存在数十年为变化周期之说相近。由此引发对人为因素导致持续增温的质疑。2009年入冬以来的严寒是否为近百年升温波动周期的终结抑或只是次级的突变因素所致,尚有待观察。但自然因素主导的周期波动规律不可逆转,不能被未经实证而被夸大了的＂人为因素＂所左右。

A study on ancient and modern climate

The authority of reports from IPCC was oppugned because the northern Hemisphere underwent severe cold since winter in 2009.The change trends of earth climate get a complicated debate.If the climate change rule and its cause were understood from the geological and archeological perspective,it may be helpful to long term climate report.The earth has suffered three different scale climate change periods such as ＂geological climate period＂ with million years,＂prehistoric climate period＂ with thousand years and ＂century climate fluctuation period＂ with hundred years which are controlled by the internal natural factors.The human activity may affect the climate and environment in scale of hundred years.In the trend of global warming Since the 20th century,the extreme cold weather in China was in 1941,1969 and 2009 changing into 2010,their interval is about 30 years.It is needed to investigate whether the severe cold since winter in 2009 was the end of warming period or was caused by other factors.The rule dominated by nature is can＇t be reversed.The jam should attract our attention,but it is inadvisable to overemphasize.Energy saving,emission reduction and low carbon economy are required to change the people＇s life and productivity,which also are progressive in history.China should not be controlled by some bombastic artificial factors that have not been proved.