| 福建旱涝短期气候预测统计方法试验研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张容焱,李永尧,徐宗焕,吴滨,高建芸. 福建旱涝短期气候预测统计方法试验研究[J]. 热带气象学报, 2007, 23(6): 636-642 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张容焱 李永尧 徐宗焕 吴滨 高建芸 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建省气候中心,福建,福州,350001;福建师范大学数学与计算机学院,福建,福州,350007;福建省气象科学研究所,福建,福州,350001 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用最优子集、神经网络、EOF—CCA和均生函数4种常用统计方法，对福建春季、前汛期、后汛期和秋冬季进行年度、季度旱涝的短期气候预测试验，采用统一的评分标准评定。结果表明：最优子集、神经网络模型具有较好的预测能力，EOF-CCA模型有一定的预测能力，均生函数模型相对较差。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝 短期气候预测 统计模型 预测能力 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-4965（2007）06-0636-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-07-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-09 |
EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH WITH STATISTICS METHOD INTO SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION ABOUT FLOOD/DROUGHT IN FUJIAN PROVINCE |
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| ZHANG Rong-yan,LI Yong-yao,XU Zong-huan,WU Bing and GAO Jian-yun. EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH WITH STATISTICS METHOD INTO SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION ABOUT FLOOD/DROUGHT IN FUJIAN PROVINCE[J]. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2007, 23(6): 636-642 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Rong-yan LI Yong-yao XU Zong-huan WU Bing GAO Jian-yun |
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| Affiliation: | The Climate Center of Fujian, Fuzhou 350001, China;Math and Computer College, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China;Meteorological Institute of Fujian, Fuzhou 350001, China;The Climate Center of Fujian, Fuzhou 350001, China;The Climate Center of Fujian, Fuzhou 350001, China |
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| Abstract: | Experimental research has been made into short-term climate prediction of flood/drought in spring, monsoon and typhoon seasons and autumn and winter seasons. It lasted a year and a quarter in Fujian with four usual statistics methods, namely, the optimal |
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| Keywords: | flood/drought short-term climate prediction statistical model forecast ability |
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