边坡稳定性二元指标体系与应用研究

边坡稳定性影响因素如:强度参数、降雨、地下水、人类工程活动等都具有很高的离散性、变异性、相关性,对安全系数的影响不是确定不变的,而是服从一定统计规律的概率分布。在每个影响因素的置信区间内,取对称的几个值作为不同水平,如三水平取值等,组合不同因素和水平,计算得到系列的安全系数值。取影响因素的平均值,计算得到传统的安全系数(中值安全系数),同时由安全系数的变异性,求出安全系数的可靠性。选择典型的安全系数及相对应的可靠性,基于工程经验丰富的安全系数,初步建立传统安全系数与可靠性耦合的边坡稳定性二元指标体系,由安全系数和可靠性共同度量边坡系统的稳定性。传统安全系数与可靠性耦合的边坡稳定二元体系的初步建立,可有效地考虑边坡系统内实际存在的不确定性和相关性,使边坡的稳定性评价更加客观精确,为边坡安全和滑坡灾害的风险性管理提供理论和方法。论述了边坡稳定性二元指标体系研究意义、研究内容、研究方法和研究趋势。

STUDY ON SLOPE STABILITY BY DUAL INDEX SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION

Influence factors of slope stability such as intensity parameter, rainfall, groundwater level and human engineering activities have great discrete, variability and correlation. Effects of those influence factors on safety factor are uncertain, but they obey some probabilistic distribution. In confidence interval of influence factor, we fetch several symmetry values as different level, for example, three level etc. According to orthogonal experiment, combining and calculating different factor and level, a series of values of safety factor will be obtained. Fetching average value of influence factor and calculating, traditional safety factor (median-value safety factor) will be obtained, at same time, reliability of safety factor will be obtained by calculating variability of safety factor. Based on safety factor which has plenty of engineering experience, choseing representative safety factor and its reliability, we shall tentatively build dual index system of slope stability coupling safety factor and reliability and measure slope stability by coupling safety factor and reliability. Dual index system of slope stability coupling traditional safety factor and reliability may effectively consider uncertain and correlation in slope system, make assessment of slope sta bility much more objective and precision, provide a new theory and method for safety of slope and risk management of landslide. In this paper, we expounded research purposes, research contents, research methods and research trends of dual index system of slope stability.