一种基于贝叶斯理论的P波双参数地震预警方法

为了及时、准确、可靠地发出地震预警信息,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯理论的地震P波双参数预警方法.选取中国地震台网中心记录的四川地区的355条地震数据,统计P波触发后前3 s的P波平均周期τc和位移幅值Pd,结合贝叶斯理论建立震级和峰值加速度的预测模型,并以震级M4.5和峰值加速度为120 cm/s2为预警阈值,建立了地震...

An early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory

In order to send out earthquake alarm information timely, accurately and reliably, an early earthquake alarm method using P-wave double-parameter alarm method based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper. Based on 355 earthquake data recorded at Sichuan Province of China Earthquake Networks Center, the median period τ_c and ground motion amplitudes P_d in the first 3 seconds after P-wave triggering are calculated. Combined with Bayesian theory, the prediction model of magnitude and peak ground acceleration is established. Taking the magnitude M＝4.5 and PGA＝120 cm/s2 as the alarm threshold, the seismic hazard discrimination model is established. Compared with the traditional fitting method, the simulation analysis of earthquake early warming based on Bayesian theory, and then the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is taken as an example to carry out the earthquake hazard identification. The experimentalresults show that early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory is 15.15% lower than the traditional fitting method, which can can quickly and accurately estimate the magnitude and peak acceleration, and effectively assess the hazard of earthquake, which can provide data support and decision-making basis for earthquake monitoring and alarming.