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一种基于贝叶斯理论的P波双参数地震预警方法
引用本文:杨敬松,张超,李智涛,李杰,曲亦歆,纪国达.一种基于贝叶斯理论的P波双参数地震预警方法[J].地震学报,2021,43(2):227-236.
作者姓名:杨敬松  张超  李智涛  李杰  曲亦歆  纪国达
作者单位:中国河北三河 065201 防灾科技学院;中国北京 100085 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院;中国北京 100089 中国兵器工业标准化研究所
基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1503801)与基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2019-12)共同资助
摘    要:为了及时、准确、可靠地发出地震预警信息,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯理论的地震P波双参数预警方法.选取中国地震台网中心记录的四川地区的355条地震数据,统计P波触发后前3 s的P波平均周期τc和位移幅值Pd,结合贝叶斯理论建立震级和峰值加速度的预测模型,并以震级M4.5和峰值加速度为120 cm/s2为预警阈值,建立了地震...

关 键 词:地震预警  贝叶斯理论  震级预测  PGA预测
收稿时间:2020-07-19

An early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory
Yang Jingsong,Zhang Chao,Li Zhitao,Li Jie,Qu Yixin,Ji Guoda.An early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2021,43(2):227-236.
Authors:Yang Jingsong  Zhang Chao  Li Zhitao  Li Jie  Qu Yixin  Ji Guoda
Institution:1.Institute of Disaster Prevention,Hebei Sanhe 065201,China2.National Institute of Natural Hazards,Beijing 100085,China3.China Ordnance Industry Standardization Research Institute,Beijing 100089,China
Abstract:In order to send out earthquake alarm information timely, accurately and reliably, an early earthquake alarm method using P-wave double-parameter alarm method based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper. Based on 355 earthquake data recorded at Sichuan Province of China Earthquake Networks Center, the median period τc and ground motion amplitudes Pd in the first 3 seconds after P-wave triggering are calculated. Combined with Bayesian theory, the prediction model of magnitude and peak ground acceleration is established. Taking the magnitude M=4.5 and PGA=120 cm/s2 as the alarm threshold, the seismic hazard discrimination model is established. Compared with the traditional fitting method, the simulation analysis of earthquake early warming based on Bayesian theory, and then the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is taken as an example to carry out the earthquake hazard identification. The experimentalresults show that early earthquake alarming method using seismic P-wave double-parameter based on Bayesian theory is 15.15% lower than the traditional fitting method, which can can quickly and accurately estimate the magnitude and peak acceleration, and effectively assess the hazard of earthquake, which can provide data support and decision-making basis for earthquake monitoring and alarming. 
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