CTFM数值模式的引进及对山西暴雨预报能力的检验

为提高山西暴雨预报能力，在引进颜宏等人设计的复杂地形条件下嵌套细网格模式的基础上，对其进行了某些调整，即：中心点位置的改动：取水汽办事办事量Ｍ为Ｍ．＝Ｍｔｌ＋Ｍｔｍ＝１．７５Ｍｔｌ；湿润因子也按Ａｎｔｈｅｓ积云对流参数化方案取值，并将郭晓岚和Ａｎｔｈｅｓ两方案结合起来使用，企图建立适用于山西暴雨预报的数值预报系统，使用该系统，对１９９３年山西暴雨个例进行了数值模拟，发现该系统对雨量及天气过程的模拟

THE INTRODUCTION OF CTFM NUMERICAL MODEL AND ITS CHECK AGAINST THE HEAVY RAINFALL PREDICTING ABILITY OF SHANXI

In order to improve the ability of predicting the heavy rainfall of ShanXi, on the basis of introduced nested fine-mesh model over the complex topography which was designed by YanHong etc. (for short: CTFM), a few adjustments have been made: the center position is changed ; the moisture convergence Mt=Mtl+Mtm= 1. 75 Mtl is taken ; the factor b of increasing humidity is chosen according to Anthes's scheme of the cumulus parameterization, so that the Kuo's scheme is combined with Anthes's scheme of the cumulus parameterization.Finally, the system of the heavy rainfall forecast of ShanXi has been formed. Using the system, a numerical simulation for the heavy rainfall event of 1993 in ShanXi has been made.The simulating results of rainfall and synoptic systems are more reasonable. In order to check the forecasting ability of this system, quasivocational exercises have been done continually during a period from 27 June to 5 August 1994. Five heavy rainfall events, which occurred during this peried,were forecasted by the system. The results showed the mean position error of four heavy rainfall events is less than one mesh(0. 78 mesh), the mean quantity error of four rainfall events is 11. 0 mm. These are far better than Japan's in ShanXi. It is suggested that the system of the heavy rainfall numerical forecast of shanxi can be used to predict heavy rainfall.