| 灰色灾变模型在蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量短期预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘希林. 灰色灾变模型在蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量短期预测中的应用[J]. 山地学报, 1992, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘希林 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量最近8年的实测资料,运用灰色系统理论的灾变预测方法建立了泥石流年输沙量的灾变预测模型,对未来可能出现的年输沙量超过200万立方米的灾变年份进行了预测,并引入等维新息模型,使短期灾变预测得以连续进行。
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| 关 键 词： | 蒋家沟 泥石流 年输沙量 灾变模型 预测 |
THE APPLICATION OF GREY CATASTROPHE MODEL TO THE FORECAST ON ANNUAL SEDIMENT YIELD OF DEBRIS FLOW ALONG JIANGJIA RAVINE |
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| Liu Xilin. THE APPLICATION OF GREY CATASTROPHE MODEL TO THE FORECAST ON ANNUAL SEDIMENT YIELD OF DEBRIS FLOW ALONG JIANGJIA RAVINE[J]. Journal of Mountain Research, 1992, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Liu Xilin |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observational data of the recent 8 years on annual sediment yield of debris flowalong Jiangjia Ravine and appling the method of the catastrophe forecast of Grey System theory,this study has established the catastrophe model of annual sediment yield by debris flow in Jiangjia Ravine . It has forecasted the following possible catastrophic years in which the annual sediment yield of debris flow will be over 2 million m'. Furthermore,it introduced the equal dimension-new information model,which makes the short-term catastrophe forecast can be done continuously. |
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| Keywords: | Jiangjia Ravine debris flow annual sediment yield catastrophe model |
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