产业结构变动对区域经济增长贡献的演变研究

产业结构变动是影响区域经济增长的重要因素。采用多部门经济模型和基于统计角度的GDP产业结构贡献度测算方法，分析1953--2003年河南省产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献，发现产业结构变动对区域经济增长的贡献逐渐下降，大体上服从Growth函数，具有长、短波复合变动规律，产业结构调整存在着阶段性和周期性特点。产业结构变动对区域经济增长的贡献在减小，经济增长的稳定性在增加，人为调整产业结构和市场与经济自身调节产业结构具有不同的效用和特点。

Study on the Evolution of the Contribution of Industrial Structure Change to Regional Economic Growth

Industrial Structure is an important factor that influeaces the regional ,economic growth . Using the model of multiple industries and the calculation method which is bassed on contribution degree of industrial structure,the paper,through the case study of Henna Province,analyzes the contribution of industrial structure change to economic growth from 1952 to 2003 and finds that the contribustion value decreases gradually with the time and the rule is subjected to the growth function .It also has the rule of compound change of a long wave and a short wave. The adjustment of industrial structure is characterized by different stages and periods. While the contribution of industrial structure to the growth of regional economy is decreasing ,the stability of economy is increasing. There are different effects and characteristics between the industrial structure through artificial adjustments and through artomatic adjustments of economy.