华东地区地震条带预报效能评估

对华东地区1970年以来的地震条带进行了预报效能评估。 结果表明: M_L≥3.0地震条带的报准率为0.33, 虚报率为0.67, 漏报率为0.71, R值为0.20; M_L≥3.5地震条带的报准率为0.40, 虚报率为0.60, 漏报率为0.81, R值为0.12; M_L≥4.0地震条带的报准率为0.71, 虚报率为0.29, 漏报率为0.76, R值为0.18; 各震级档条带的R值等于或高于具有97.5%置信水平的R₀值, 具有一定的预报能力。 主震一般发生在条带结束后1年时间内, 多数发生在条带内部和边缘, 条带以北东向或北北东向居多; 对于条带的平均持续时间, 震级下限越大的条带平均持续时间越长; 多数条带分布在江苏及附近海域和赣北及邻区。

Evaluation of the Forecast Effectiveness of Seismic Strip in Eastern China

In this paper, forecast effectiveness of seismic strip was evaluated in Eastern China since 1970. The results show that accurate rate of M_L≥3.0 earthquake strip is 0.33, inflating rate is 0.67, missing rate is 0.71, R value is 0.20. The values of M_L≥3.5 earthquakes are 0.40, 0.60, 0.81 and 0.12 respectively. M_L≥4.0 earthquakes are 0.71, 0.29, 0.76 and 0.18 respectively. R value is equal to or higher than R₀ value of 97.5% confidence level, and it has certain forecast capability. Mainshocks generally occur in the year after abnormal end, most of them are located in the strip and the margin, and the direction is NE or NNE-trending. The greater the magnitude lower limit of seismic strip, the longer the average duration. The strips are mainly distributed in Jiangsu and adjacent sea areas, northern Jiangxi and its periphery.