地震大地测量学及其对地震预测的促进——50年进展、问题与创新驱动

地球科学进入地球系统科学新时期，在防震减灾国家任务引领下，以空间等高新技术为特色的现代大地测量学与地震学、构造地质学、岩石力学和复杂动力系统理论相交融，历经50年艰难探索，一门交叉新兴学科--地震大地测量学初步形成。从科学思想与实践效果的视角，简述所取得的基本进展与问题，例如建立多尺度空-时（频）域精密监（探）测系统；开拓现今大陆地壳运动与变形动力学（10-2s~102a）新领域，精确获取前人未能知晓的自然现象；揭示出中国大陆地壳形变系统是一个自组织动力系统，地震是此系统演化过程中为保持长期稳定的自调节暂态行为，具可预测性，又极难实现完全确定性的预测；尽管仍待长期探索，而当下已有可能对其中某些地震作出不同程度的预测。以科学思想创新为基础，提出了促进地震预测创新、脱困的新途径、新模式、新对策和具可操作性的新方法。

Earthquake Geodesy and Earthquake Prediction: Progress,Innovations and Problems Over Fifty Years

Earth science has entered a new era. A new branch of science-earthquake geodesy, has been preliminarily formed after fifty years of exploration, with the development of modern geodesy such as space technology integrated with the theory of seismology, geology, rock mechanics and complex dynamical system. Basic progress and questions are discussed from the perspective of scientific thought and practical effect. The precise multi-scale time-spacial monitoring system is set up to explore the new field of continental dynamics, and to get the unknown natural phenomenon. It is revealed that crustal deformation system in China mainland is a self-organizing dynamical system, earthquake is a transient behavior of self-adjusting for keeping long-term stability in the process of evolution.Earthquake has a predictable nature,but it is difficult to achieve fully deterministic prediction. It is possible to predict some of the earthquakes at present, although the long-term exploration is required.Some new ways, new models, new measures and new methods, advancing the innovation and getting out of difficulties for eurthquake prediction, are suggested on the basis of innovative scientific thinking.