近30年来中国航空客运与入境旅游的关联效应及空间差异划分

利用1978―2010年的时间序列数据及2009―2010年中国31个省区截面数据，采用协整分析和相关分析法，分析了入境客流量与民航客运的关联关系及空间差异，结果发现：1）从时间序列数据分析看，入境客流量与国际航空客运量和国际航线里程之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系；格兰杰因果关系检验表明，国际航线里程与入境客流量存在双向格兰杰因果关系，即两者相互促进发展；入境客流量与国际航空客运量间存在单向格兰杰因果关系，即入境客流量增加能有效促进国际航空客运量的增长。2）从31个省区的截面数据分析发现，入境客流量与民航客运量呈明显的线性正相关。以入境客流量市场占有率和航空客运量市场占有率为指标，将中国31个省区划分为高客运-高入境、中客运-中入境和低客运-低入境3个等级。

Linkage Effect between Air Passenger Traffic and Inbound Tourism and Its Regional Disparity in China

The time series data of the inbound tourists and the air passenger traffic from 1978 to 2010，as well as the cross section data of the inbound tourists and the air passenger traffic of 31 provinces in China from 2009 to 2010 are used to study the relationship between inbound tourists and air passenger traffic and its regional disparity by the co-integration test，Granger causality test and correlation analysis. The results show that: 1) there is a stable equilibrium relation between inbound tourists and air passenger traffic and air traffic international routes for a long-range. In addition，inbound tourists and air traffic international routes exist two-way Granger causality，while inbound tourists and air passenger traffic exist one-way Granger causality. Hence，inbound tourists contribute to the development of the air passenger traffic. 2) Section data shows that inbound tourists have a positive linear correlation to air passenger traffic significantly. According to the index of the market share of inbound tourists and air passenger traffic，the 31 provinces can be classified into three types, which are: high passenger traffic-high inbound tourists, medium passenger traffic-medium inbound tourists, and low passenger traffic-low inbound tourists.