Time-dependent modeling of the Baltic entrance area. 2. Water and salt exchange of the Baltic Sea

A time-dependent model for stratification and circulation within the Baltic entrance area (Gustafsson 2000) is tested against observed salinities for the period 1961–1993. Although the Baltic Sea is one of the largest estuarine systems on earth, this model could be applicable to smaller estuarine systems and embayments with tidal exchange. The seasonal cycle of freshwater flux across the sill area does not follow the seasonal cycle of freshwater supply to the Baltic Sea. The seasonal variation of the flux is a combined effect of the seasonal variation in freshwater supply, in Baltic mean sea level, and in dispersion of salt across the sills. The seasonal variation in dispersion of salt is due to the seasonal cycle of sea level variability. The model is used to predict the inflow of high saline water to the Baltic Sea. The resulting inflow time-series is consistent with variations in the deep-water salinity and temperature in the deeper parts of the Baltic Sea. A comparison with previous estimates of the magnitude of major Baltic inflows shows that the model is able to reproduce the characteristics fairly well although the magnitude of the flows of water and salt appears lower than other estimates. It is shown that a climatic change that increases the wind mixing does not significantly change the major inflows. Both increased amplitudes of sea level variations in the Kattegat and decreased freshwater supply to the Baltic Sea substantially increase the magnitude of the inflows. It is shown that deep-water renewal in the Baltic Sea is obstructed during years with high freshwater supply even if the sea level forcing is favorable to a major inflow.