| A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China |
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| 作者姓名： | Fu ZhengxiangCenter for Analysis and Prediction SSB Beijing China |
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| 作者单位： | Fu ZhengxiangCenter for Analysis and Prediction，SSB，Beijing 100036，China |
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| 摘 要： | During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.
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A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China |
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| Fu ZhengxiangCenter for Analysis and Prediction,SSB,Beijing ,China.A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China[J].Earthquake Research in China,1995(4). |
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| Authors: | Fu ZhengxiangCenter for Analysis and Prediction SSB Beijing China |
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| Institution: | Fu ZhengxiangCenter for Analysis and Prediction,SSB,Beijing 100036,China |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | seismic disaster prediction probability estimation fatalities from earthquake North China |
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