全国248站中—大雨以上降水概率MOS预报及其因子设计

本文给出了全国中—大雨以上降水概率MOS预报的制作方法、样本过滤条件、预报因子的设计与推导、预报值后处理以及检验与误差原因分析。还论述了MOS预报中采用σ面上的数值预报产品作因子、两维二次插值和预报值变量因子的作用与求取方法。

MOS probability forecasts of moderate and heavy precipitation for 248 stations nationwide

The approach to produce MOS probability forecasts of moderate and heavy .precipitation is shown in the paper. So are the conditions to narrow sample size, design and derivation of predictors, procedure to adjust the forecast probabilities as well as verification and reasons for errors. And it expounds how the fields on a surfaces from model forecasts used as predictors, two dimensional interpolation, and variables' changes are made and employed in MOS forecasting. Their effects on MOS forecasts are also explained.