Indicators of critical point behavior prior to rock failure inferred from pre-failure damage

To investigate possible indicators of critical point behavior prior to rock failure, the statistical properties of pre-failure damage were analyzed based on acoustic emission events (AE) recorded during the catastrophic fracture of typical rock samples under differential compression. AEs were monitored using a high-speed 32-channel waveform recording system. Time-dependent statistics, including the energy release rate, b-value of the magnitude–frequency distribution, fractal dimension and spatial correlation length (SCL) of the AE hypocenters were calculated for each data set. Each parameter is a function of the time-to-failure and thus can be treated as an indicator of the critical point. It is clear that the pre-failure damage evolution prior to catastrophic failures in several common rock-types is generally characterized by: 1) accelerated energy release, 2) a decrease in fractal dimension and SCL with a subsequent precursory increase, and 3) a decrease in b-value from  1.5 to  0.5 for hard rocks, and from  1.1 to  0.8 for soft rocks such S–C cataclasite. However, each parameter also reveals more complicated temporal evolution due to either the heterogeneity of the rock mass or the micro-mechanics of shear fracturing. This confirms the potential importance of integrated analysis of two or more parameters for successfully predicting the critical point. The decreasing b-value and increasing energy release may prove meaningful for intermediate-term prediction, while the precursory increase in fractal dimension and SCL may facilitate short-term prediction.