| 官厅水库及邻区地震活动的最大熵谱分析及其未来50年内强震危险性预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 武安绪,吴培稚,鲁跃,张丽芳,赵文忠.官厅水库及邻区地震活动的最大熵谱分析及其未来50年内强震危险性预测[J].华北地震科学,2004,22(1):5-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 武安绪 吴培稚 鲁跃 张丽芳 赵文忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市地震局,中国,北京,100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市自然科学基金项目(8992008)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用最大熵谱分析与显著周期叠加建模的方法，首先对官厅水库及邻区的历史地震活动进行最大熵谱分析，然后利用所得到的显著周期进行建模，最后对未来50年内官厅水库及邻区的地震危险性进行了分析和预测。本文还用熵谱谱阵分析法，分析了地震活动周期的相对稳定性和时变性，并指出在地震预测中应注意对时变性的研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 官厅水库 最大熵谱分析 显著周期叠加建模 危险性趋势预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-1375(2004)01-0005-07 |
Maximum entropy spectrum analysis for the seismicity in Guanting reservoir area and earthquake risk prediction in the next fifty years |
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| WU An-xu,WU Pei-zhi,LU Yue,ZHANG Li-fang,ZHAO Wen-zhong.Maximum entropy spectrum analysis for the seismicity in Guanting reservoir area and earthquake risk prediction in the next fifty years[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,2004,22(1):5-11. |
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| Authors: | WU An-xu WU Pei-zhi LU Yue ZHANG Li-fang ZHAO Wen-zhong |
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| Abstract: | modeled with maximum entropy spectrum analysis and prominent period stacking, the historical earthquake activity in Guanting reservoir and its surrounding area is studied. The earthquake risk of the area in the next fifty years is predicted with the prominent periods that we obtained. The stability and time-varying of the period in earthquake activity are also analyzed with spectral array of entropy method. |
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| Keywords: | Guanting Reservoir maximum entropy spectrum analysis modeling with prominent period stacking earthquake risk prediction |
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