安徽省产业结构变化和技术进步对用水效率影响测度与分析——基于完全分解模型

水资源短缺为掣肘安徽省经济社会可持续发展约束因素之一,提高水资源利用效率是破解其关键。运用完全分解模型,就技术进步、结构变动因素对安徽省单位GDP水耗贡献份额进行了测度,结果表明:(1)2001~2014年,技术进步导致安徽省单位GDP用水年均下降31.91m3,是提高水资源利用效率关键因素,贡献率高达88.69%,三次产业技术进步贡献率分别为45.19%、38.59%、4.91%;(2)产业结构调整对安徽省单位GDP用水强度下降贡献率为11.31%,三次产业变动贡献率分别为-4.98%、0.62%、15.66%。提高安徽省水资源利用效率核心在于:依靠科技创新,促进一、二产业技术水平提升,调整、优化产业结构,大力提高第三产业比重。研究结果,可为安徽省制定水资源利用效率的政策提供决策参考。

Influences of Industrial Structure Change and Technological Progress on Water Use Efficiency in Anhui Province: Based on A Complete Decomposition Model

The shortage of water resources is a constraint factor for sustainable economic and social development in Anhui Province, and the improvement in utilization efficiency of water resources is the key solution. The complete decomposition model was used to measure the shares of technological progress and structural change factors in per unit GDP water consumption of Anhui Province. The results show that: (1) during 2001-2014, technological progress led to per unit GDP water consumption with annual average decline of 31.91 m3 in Anhui Province, which is a key factor in increasing the utilization efficiency of water resources with the contribution rate as high as 88.69%, and those of three industrial technological progresses are 45.19%, 38.59% and 4.91% respectively; (2) the adjustment of industrial structure has a contribution rate of 11.31% in per unit GDP water utilization intensity of Anhui Province, and those of three industry changes are -4.98%, 0.62% and 15.66% respectively. The core of improving the utilization efficiency of water resources in Anhui Province is to rely on scientific and technological innovation to promote the technological levels of the primary and secondary industries, adjust and optimize industrial structure, and vigorously improve the proportion of the tertiary industry. The research results can provide decision-making references for policy formulation of water resources utilization